Thread:BehindTheEight/@comment-26365873-20150802092302/@comment-6969786-20150803001353

Those percentages were officially posted by kixeye...

Kixeye Forum ( 07/07/15 ) - Update Notes - Tuesday 07/07/15 - ( Official ) - Published Odds of Winning Prizes

Every time you do a base you have the same odds.

74 times out of 100 bases you do in the long run you will get medals. I say in the long run because it takes a lage sample size to see the true odds and not what are just short statistical runs.

You fip a coin with 50 % chance of heads / 50 % chance of Tails ... you only flip it 6 times you might see 3 heads, 3 tails or you might see 1 head 5 tails. If you fiip it 50 times you might see heads 30 times, tails 20.. this is because in order to eliminate short streaks and see the actual odd you need fip it a couple of hundred times or more. The more you flip it the closer to the true odds you will see.

So doing only 8 bases will tell you nothing about what the odds are, seriously NOTHING.

If you did 1000 bases on average 74 times out of 100 you will get medals, 1 out of a 100 you get unit and 25 out of 100 you get the tech.

so after the 1000 bases you should have gotten approximatly 740 medals prizes 250 techs & 10 units.

What ever you get in previous bases has NO EFFECT on the what you will get on the next. It has no idea what you got in previouls bases. Each time you do the draw it the same odds no matter if you have found 3 unit in a row before or non in 200 bases.

No understanding statistics is the BIGGEST REASON FOR COMPLAINTS on the forum for the prize draws.

On my first base I got the eTitan, I just happend to be that 1 in a hundred and it happened to be on the first try, I was lucky, so of I already had it so it was a waste of a draw for me.